Political Betting: Tracking the Odds on Who President Biden Will Pardon Next

Following President Joe Biden’s recent pardon of his son, Hunter Biden, which covers all offences committed from January 1, 2014, through December 1, 2024, political bettors are eager to wager on who else might receive a presidential pardon. This exciting development has sparked a flurry of activity on various political wagering platforms.

On platforms such as Kalshi, a peer-to-peer betting site that deals in political derivatives, bettors are giving Jim Biden, President Biden’s older brother, a 33% chance of also receiving a pardon. This market has surged following Biden’s decision, especially since the President initially indicated he would honour the Justice Department’s stance against pardoning his son.

• Jim Biden’s odds have risen by 13 points in just 24 hours, largely due to speculation that a potential Trump administration could pursue investigations against him regarding alleged shady business ventures.
• Hunter’s pardon comes ahead of his scheduled sentencing for firearm and tax-related charges, putting further pressure on the Biden administration and its decisions.

Laptop Remains Focus

Attention has recently returned to Hunter Biden’s controversial laptop, which has played a pivotal role in political discourse since its acquisition by the Justice Department. The laptop contained emails and other communications indicating a close relationship between Hunter and Jim Biden, with implications that they may have collaborated on overseas business deals.

“Hunter, we are cut from the same cloth,” one email read. “You are a fine and yes, a gentle person. Believe it or not, I know you. Concentrate on the good in our lives and try to step out of all the bulls*** you deal with on a minute-to-minute basis.”

This correspondence, coupled with ongoing scrutiny of Jim Biden’s business dealings—which have included various industries such as healthcare and entertainment—highlights the complex web of relationships and potential conflicts of interest that have emerged from the Biden family dynamic. A 2022 feature in The Washington Post refers to Jim Biden as a “political wild card,” further complicating predictions.

Pardon for Fauci?

Another potential contender for a pardon is Dr. Anthony Fauci, who has found himself at the centre of political controversy following his leadership during the COVID-19 outbreak. Betting on Kalshi and Polymarket reveals that many see a possibility for him to seek legal immunity amidst ongoing investigations and public scrutiny regarding his actions during the pandemic.

• Implied odds for Fauci receiving a pardon currently sit at around 14%, showing an increase of 2% in recent days.
• However, the odds for celebrity Sean Combs (known as Diddy), embroiled in serious legal issues involving sex trafficking allegations, are notably low, with bettors giving him just a 2% chance of receiving a pardon.

As political betting continues to gain traction among the public, especially with high-profile figures involved, we can expect this trend to escalate. Keeping an eye on these political manoeuvres and their implications will be vital for those invested in political futures.

Summary

This rapidly evolving situation underscores the intersection of politics and gambling, as visible in the ongoing discussions around pardons by President Biden. With bettors keenly watching the odds for both familial and political figures, the betting landscape is as dynamic as the political environment itself.